2010 Oscar Projections

Reactionary Intro (3/10): So, it saddens me to report that the following was the worst of my five Oscar predictions. Bummer. But honestly it is for the best. I chose my picks based on rewarding the new technology introduced in film (like Avatar). Hollywood did not. Thus, we may be able to conclude that the 3D craze will not take over the world as we feared. No more headaches!

Below I've color-coded my results. Green lettering is good. Red lettering is bad (lots of red). Lt. Blue lettering are new comments.

Initial Intro: So I realize I'm writing this the day of the Oscars and leaving you hardly any time to read it before all of the awards have been received, but it must be done. So now I embark on my 5th consecutive full-on Oscar Projection.

Previous Years and Results
2006 - 5/10* - 42% overall
2007 - 6/10* - 54% overall
2008 - 7/10* - 42% overall
2009 - 5/10* - 42% overall
2010 - 3/10* - 42% overall

Again the * represents 'star category's, which are what I have designated as the the 10 most anticipated categories of the Oscars and in turn the most ready to be predicted by viewers.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Taking it a step further this year, instead of reading each films' synopsis, I went to Youtube to watch the trailers. I would most like to see 'Rabbit a la Berlin' (which is the story of the Berlin Wall from the perspective of rabbits), but I think that 'Music By Prudence will win'. It stars a girl handicapped by Arthrogryphosis, who has overcome her disability to be an inspiring musician. This offered the strangest moment of the night, when an estranged producer interrupted the film's director's acceptance speech. Hear it from the two involved here.

BEST SHORT FILM (animated): These are always great fun. Three of them are currently on YouTube for viewing, all three having an old lady theme. Of the three available, I liked French Roast the best and it has a strong message that points the finger back at us. But this will not win. Why? Because it is up against 'A Matter of Loaf and Death', which is sure to be another Wallace and Gromit classic. The claymated duo won best animated feature in 2006. They produce quality films and use the stop-motion technique, which requires several patient and tedious steps. And not to be completely passed over is 'Logorama', which features all of your favorite advertising brands living in a world with themselves. 'Loaf' wins though.

BEST SHORT FILM (live action): I'm not sure how to best to predict this category yet, but last year I went with the light-hearted feel-good short film and ultimately lost to a somber short set in Nazi Germany. So if it is history they like, then I will choose 'The Door' to win this year, which tells how a father copes with the sudden Chernobyl disaster. No history trend. Still not sure how to predict.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 'Crazy Heart' is centered around a life in music. Their song, if any, should win. Right? Sound logic.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: The Academy's recent trend favors scores that complement a film that has serious subject matter. And only the 'Hurt Locker' has that. So despite not remembering any music in this movie, I choose it to win. Worst logic of the post.

BEST COSTUME: There are two choices here. You can ride the period piece wave, which has won the past three years, by choosing 'The Young Victoria'. Or you can say it's time for a change and choose 'Nine' which has similar costumes to that of previous costume winners 'Chicago' and 'Moulin Rouge'. I'll go with 'Nine'. The trend continues, frills always win. I should have known.

BEST MAKE-UP: No trend to follow here, so I choose 'Star Trek'. Did you see Nero?

BEST ART DIRECTION: Reinforcing my costume choice for 'Nine', I'll give them Art Direction as well.

BEST SOUND EDITING: Tough category to predict, I'll go with 'Up' though, for all of the sound had to be created separate from the filming, because there was no filming. And I think a house was lifted by balloons in that, how do you create sound for that? 'Hurt Locker' begins to ruin my night.

BEST SOUND MIXING: I honesty don't think 'Star Trek' has a chance in this one. 'Avatar' will be my default choice. Btw, if you're doing your own Oscar Pick'em, you too should make 'Avatar' your default pick. It's going to win a few.

BEST VISUAL F/X: Avatar, no contest, take it to Vegas.

BEST DOCUMENTARY: I have seen 'Food, Inc.' and 'The Cove' from this category, and the other three docs look pretty interesting too. If it is between the two I've seen, which I will claim it to be for the sake of my prediction, 'The Cove' will win. It depicts the destruction of dolphins and the dangers the mass slaughters present to us globally (23,000 dolphins are killed in one small cove in Taiki, Japan every year). And the activist the film centers around was the dolphin trainer for Flipper. Very interesting. 'Food, Inc.' was good too, eat organic, support your local farmer.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: I didn't see any of these films this year, though I wanted to see 'Up', 'Fantastic Mr. Fox', and 'Coraline'. I would have chosen Mr. Fox to win because it is Wes Anderson's interesting alternative to the Pixar film that is usually the clear favorite. However, since 'Up' is the only animated film also nominated for Original Screenplay and more tellingly Best Picture, it's obviously going to win.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: I've narrowed it down to three: 'Ajami', 'Un Prophete' and 'The White Ribbon'. Though I haven't seen any. I'll go with the favorite. 'The White Ribbon'. I narrowed it down to losers. A good class for foreign films I guess.

*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Do I base this prediction on new technology or traditional merit? I'd like to say traditional and go with 'The Hurt Locker', but 'Avatar' is making the claim for every future movie having a 3D component. Technology wins, 'Avatar' wins. If it doesn't though, watch for James Cameron's odds at winning Best Director to decrease. I was wrong for going with technology, but right about Cameron's odds.

*BEST FILM EDITING: I seriously have no idea. I'll say 'Avatar' because the editor was working with a foreign world and had to figure out what which takes depicted it the best.

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The screenplay nominees traditionally exist to narrow down the Best Picture category to two films: the winner of adapted screenplay and the winner of original screenplay. Though, a third film can and has won before (note Avatar's screenplay is not up for an award, but remains a favorite for Best Picture); it happens about 1.5 out of 5 years. 'Up in the Air' for adapted. By this logic, the Best Picture race was between Precious and Hurt Locker. I'm glad it was Hurt Locker.

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: This is tough. As a guy, I like Quentin Tarantino and the films he puts out. He has never won an Oscar for himself and he has three chances tonight (screenplay/director/picture). Will he win any? I'm pulling for him, but this category may be his best shot. I'll take 'Inglourious Basterds'.

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Didn't see 'Precious', but Mo'Nique has been cleaning house this awards season. She'll do it again.

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz makes the Best Supporting Actor category the easiest category to predict for the second year in a row (Heath Ledger won last year). Waltz was phenomenal.

*BEST ACTRESS: So Sandra Bullock has been winning a lot of awards for 'The Blide Side'. I only remember her crying once in the film and it wasn't emotionally demanding for her (no yelling, more fighting back tears, trying not to be caught crying), but it will be her accent and likeness to Mrs. Tuhoy, the real-life person she played, that will win it for her. And popularity I guess. However, I'm going to go against popular opinion and choose Carey Mulligan from 'An Education' as my surprise sleeper pick.

*BEST ACTOR: This for some reason is the hardest category for me. I think I liked Renner the best in his role, but I can't see him winning. If the Academy Awards is just a popularity contest, then I have no problem picking Jeff Bridges, who has won many awards for his part in 'Crazy Horse'. But George Clooney was fun to watch in 'Up in the Air' too. I'll go with Bridges.

*BEST DIRECTOR: Rooting for Tarantino, James Cameron will get the win.

*BEST PICTURE: Rooting for Tarantino and I will hold to my guns. 'Inglourious Basterds' wins Best Picture. The lesson, never make it personal.

Kudos to my friend Wes who went 19 for 24 on the night.