After Viewing Reactions: So for the third time in my four efforts to predict the Oscar winners I finish with a 42% (10-for-24). Not good. The New York Times Carpetbagger went 18-for-24. Obviously I still have more to learn before I take that job. Nevertheless, it will always be a fun process to predict the winners.
Also, Saturday night I was able to screen all 10 Oscar-nominated short films at a local movie theater in Memphis. It sold out quickly and the average age of attendees was probably 50. I'm trying to grow up too fast. So I changed my pick for the Live Action Short Film, but still got it wrong.
I went 6-for-10 in the star categories. More than half. Decent. I'll get 'em next year. See category sections below for color-coded reactions.
Correct. Wrong. Reaction.
Original Statement: For the past three years I have made an effort to view the five movies nominated for BEST PICTURE before the Academy Awards (I missed my chance at seeing ‘Milk’). In addition to completing this upwards of $30 investment, I also take a careful look at the complete Academy Awards’ ballot sheet and try to guess the winner appropriately. In ’06 I went 10-for-24 (42%), in ’07 I went 13-for-24 (54%) and in ’08 I went 10-for-24 again. Pretty average one might say, but it is hard to pick a winner when you haven’t seen any of the movies in the categories (such as Live Action Short Film and Foreign Film). Thus, when I started I declared 10 ‘Star’ categories that are the most important. Of these 10 ‘Star Categories’ I have continued to improve over the years (5/10 in ’06, 6/10 in ’07, 7/10 in ’08). Let’s keep that pattern going.
So now I present to you my 2009 Oscar Picks with some explanations. On the list below, a * by the category designates what I deem a ‘Star Category’.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: ‘Smile Pinki’ wins. Best synopsis.
BEST SHORT FILM (Live Action): I choose ‘New Boy’. Deals with race.
After watching them I chose 'The Pig' which is a very charming film from Denmark about a hospital patient who finds a deep connection with the painting of a pig in his room.
BEST SHORT FILM (Animated): I have actually seen ‘Presto’, so I chose it. Though ‘Octapodi’ looks cool.
'Octapodi' was the shortest of the shorts. It was alright.
BEST MUSIC SONG: All college students who enjoy indie-tribal-rap will probably be pulling for M.I.A.’s ‘O Saya’ to win. I’m with them. Do remember 3 6 Mafia has an Oscar, making no musical artist an impossibility.
BEST MUSIC SCORE: ‘Benjamin Button’ wins with the unique New Orleans backdrop.
BEST COSTUME: Period pieces usually have a distinct advantage in this category. The more ruffles and frills the better. ‘The Duchess’ wins.
Frills!
BEST MAKE-UP: While the ‘Dark Knight’ did give us what will be a very lasting image and Halloween get-up with the Joker’s face paint, aging is one of the most difficult things to make look believable in cinema and ‘Benjamin Button’ did a terrific job. Button wins.
BEST ART DIRECTION: This category usually goes to musicals, but none of the nominees are that. Hmm. The next most often is fantasy films, which I guess would be ‘The Dark Knight’. I feel weird putting it here, but let’s do it.
BEST SOUND EDITING: It’s between ‘Wall-E’ or ‘Iron Man’ here for me. ‘Wall-E’ had no original sounds to work with, being 100% animated, but the high-tech weaponry of ‘Iron Man’ could be a tough opponent. Plus, Iron Man kind of resembles the little Oscar guy. Distant cousins? Nah. I choose ‘Wall-E’, cleverly using the Apple boot-up sound as Wall-E’s full-energy indicator.
BEST SOUND MIXING: ‘The Dark Knight’s’ sound was seamless, constant action requiring equally believable sounds.
BEST VISUAL F/X: This category is basically a way for the summer blockbuster to always get an award. ‘The Dark Knight’ deserves it though, using CGI sparingly and actually blowing up that hospital. Kudos.
BEST FOREIGN FILM: I think this one will go to ‘Waltz with Bashir’. A personal look into the Israeli army during the Lebanon War. Plus the trippy looking animation sets it apart. I’ve heard of this one too, which bodes well as an indicator.
*BEST DOCUMENTARY: I going with ‘Man On Wire’ because it is the only one I happened to see in ’08. An interesting inside look at a tightrope walker's life and his master plan to conquer the Twin Towers of New York. He’s a very eccentric guy too. Do remember to qualify as a Documentary, only 51% of the film actually has to be true. And that’s the truth.
I'm glad I didn't know Herzog had a documentary in this category, because I may have chosen it.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: ‘Wall-E’ wins easily, using a fun little robot friend to teach kids about the importance of keeping the planet ‘green’. The Academy will eat it up.
*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ had a lot of running scenes that were cool and well done, but I feel like ‘the Dark Knight’ has some pull. Still I will choose ‘Slumdog’ for the quickly paced scenes of the kids running through the trash-filled streets of Mumbai.
*BEST FILM EDITING: Editing and Cinematography have only matched up twice in the past 10 years, so I’m apprehensive to choose ‘Slumdog’. I could cut costs and choose it, knowing that I’ll at least get one right if I pick it for both Cinematography and Editing, but instead I’ll choose ‘Dark Knight’.
So I would have gotten two right.
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: This category alone, which will probably be pretty early in the presentations
(yes), will determine which film wins Best Picture
(yes). Over the last 10 years, only three of the Best Picture winners didn’t have either the Adapted or Original Screenplay win. That’s why ‘Benjamin Button’ will win. An adaptation of a renowned American novelist, F. Scott Fitzgerald, plus a tie-in with Hurricane Katrina. Gold.
Unfortunately I had the wrong one.
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Oh how the original screenplay has fallen. The great movie writers of our time have ceased to exist. No one can generate a unique story these days. Instead terrible sequels and remakes are attempted, leaving no one happy. This is probably the worst I have seen this category since doing this, proving to be a fairly weak year in movies. There is no reason a Colin Farrell movie should be in there and the ‘Happy-Go-Lucky’ nom is the Academy’s desperate attempt to keep alive the cute indie-comedy seen in year’s past with ‘Juno’ and ‘Little Miss Sunshine’. Woody Allen's '08 film didn't even get a nomination. I'm happy to see that ‘Wall-E’ got in here though and I hope it beats out ‘Milk’. Tear the two nominees down to the question: Will the Academy support going green or gay rights? Tear the question down again: Is the environment more important or are humans? The answer will be humans. ‘Milk’ wins.
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: If I had seen ‘Doubt’, I could probably approach this category confidently. I did not though, so it’s guessing time. Amy Adams, who was in ‘Doubt’, not a pun, is an up-and-coming actress who is a perfect fit to win this category. I’ll choose her on a whim.
*BEST ACTRESS: Unfortunately I have only seen Winslet’s performance, again limiting my abilities to predict. She did well, looking completely devastated on numerous occasions, but is up against the experience of Meryl Streep and the direction of Clint Eastwood in Angelina Jolie. I’ll say Winslet, though it appears Melissa Leo could be a sleeper.
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger gave everything he had to bring the joker to the big screen, including his life. Americans will outrage if he doesn’t win.
*BEST ACTOR: Oh how I want Mickey Rourke to win. The guy is super ugly and will probably not have another role that is so perfect for him and so demanding. However, the big player that stands in his way is Sean Penn as Harvey Milk. The academy loves actors who are able to bring back to life people who actually existed. Playing a martyr to the homosexual community, if there is a better role to take that guarantees an Academy nod I would like to know. The only thing Rourke can hope for is that Penn’s performance came off as fake. Penn wins.
*BEST DIRECTOR: When you see bad acting it is important to know that this is the director’s fault. The director is responsible for what you see on the screen. If his talent cannot perform certain emotions believably, he must set another course. Now that you know this, you might find it interesting that only seven of the 40 acting award winners of these past 10 years (less than 20%) saw their coach win best director. Hopefully that made since. If not then it is probably unclear why I think Gus Van Sant (Milk) will only win if Penn loses best actor and Stephen Daldry (Reader) will only win if Winslet losses best actress. Best Director usually coincides with Best Picture, but I think Blanchett’s acting in ‘Button’ specifically when she was old will ruin it for David Fincher (notice Blanchett wasn’t nominated at all). I’ll give it to Van Sant for ‘Milk’.
*BEST PICTURE: Well, it’s the category everyone’s been waiting for. (please read the Screenplay Awards above if you haven't) I think this year is pretty easy. We all know bio-pics struggle to win this award, which rules out ‘Frost/Nixon’ and ‘Milk’, though the subject matter of 'Milk' is personal to a large majority of the Academy. Even so, rule it out. Everyone's sleeper pick ‘Slumdog’ relies to heavily on its gimmick to win and the ‘Reader’ is perhaps too plain. That leaves us with ‘Benjamin Button’ as the winner. A nice safe pick for the Academy.
Hope this was interesting and I hope I do well. The Oscars are Sunday night February 22nd.
